HPC-Competence Center

The Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) is Ireland’s national Advanced Computing Centre. ICHEC exploits highperformance computing techniques and novel technologies to deliver efficiencies and innovations across a wide range of domains in industry and academia.

The Enterprise

The global drive to innovative solutions addressing climate change, sustainable clean energy and managing scarce natural resources has seen rapid growth worldwide. Ireland has a target of 40% renewable electricity generation by 2020, most of which is expected to come from wind power. In order to meet this target Irish Operators are looking for new sources of generation, as well as novel ways to optimize power consumption.

How HPC makes the difference

Fig: Snapshot of surface wind field from highresolution (0.5km grid-size) Harmonie forecast model.

The purpose of the project was to establish a prototype wind- and power-forecasting system for the client’s wind-farms, and to evaluate the level of skill or accuracy achieved by the system. The client provided wind and power measurements from their wind-farm at Knockaneden, Co. Kerry. Given its location in complex topography the farm presents a particularly stiff challenge for forecasting systems. ICHEC designed and implemented a fully automated wind and power forecasting system, providing customers, on a daily basis, with forecasts out to noon the following day. The final Bayesian Model Average (BMA) output consists of an “envelope” of forecasts, including the “most likely” forecast (i.e., with a 50% chance of being too weak or too strong), along with, e.g., the 20% and 80% quantiles. Thus, there is a 60% chance that the wind or power at any time will be between the 20% and 80% quantiles). In this way, BMA forecasts both specific wind and power values, along with a measure of confidence in those values. In this way, BMA forecasts both specific wind and power values, along with a measure of confidence in those values.